In the present world, there is an increase in IT cities, which is the demand of all the people who are living with #frolic. 2040 isn’t that far into the future. There won’t be any revolutionary design change in the exteriors of the cities, that is how they look like from the #outside. The building and infrastructure will be similar to today.
According to one of the most frequently cited definitions of a smart city (Albino et al., 2015), “a city is smart when investments in human and social capital, as well as traditional (transport) and modern (ICT) communication infrastructure, fuel sustainable economic growth and a high quality of life, with wise management of natural resources, through participatory governance” (Caragliu et al., 2011, p. 70). Given that cities can be viewed as integrated systems, traditional infrastructure may include vertical systems other than transportation, such as energy, governance, and urban structures. “Smartness” then emerges as a set of long-term interconnections between fields that use cutting-edge technology, such as ICT, to connect those to the critical environment that city dwellers require daily. The key drivers, trends, and potential impacts of future developments in this field are primarily related to the growing challenges of cities, such as environmental issues, supportive policies and initiatives, technological innovation, and privacy, security, safety, and ethical concerns. Smart city initiatives address these issues through the use of technology, both by providing digital solutions and by empowering citizens to connect, exchange knowledge, and innovate (Albino et al., 2015; Angelidou, 2017). At the same time, cities’ role in combating climate change and eliminating pollution is critical (World Bank, 2020). In this regard, cities provide ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities that are relevant at the global and regional levels, potentially reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating adaptation capacities to climate change (IPCC, 2022). Smart infrastructure encourages more efficient resource consumption, among other things, by improving building energy efficiency with sensors and optimising urban transportation through real-time data analysis, thereby promoting the proliferation of smart city initiatives (Radu, 2020; Timeus et al., 2020).
By the year 2040, urbanisation had altered both the nation and the world. With China already surpassing the USA and India surpassing Japan to become the second-largest #economy in the world, India is now trailing China in terms of urbanisation, with 675 million people living in urbanised cities compared to China’s 1 billion inhabitants. But what does urbanisation cost? Cost to society? Is it a good or bad thing? Were we able to leave more easily or are we becoming more AI-driven? Whether it’s been the industrial revolution in the 18th century or the development of the Internet, technology has always been the driving force behind any change in society. The world has undergone tremendous change and continues to do so as cities become smarter, offering more opportunities and a better quality of life. Cities are the drivers of economic development and modernization, and they alter the course of history. Considering that half of humanity now resides in cities. Urbanization is what is miraculously altering the growth trajectory. The cities that are currently among the top 10 in terms of GDP share may not be on the list in 2040. According to a report by Oxford Economics, the majority of the cities will be in Asia, with New York and London continuing to lead due to their strong ties to the banking and finance industries. Similarly to this, a nation’s population and demographics can contribute significantly to its growth. India’s rapidly growing working-age population will be to their advantage, and the nation is expected to host some of the fastest-growing cities in the world in the years to come. The West is also taken aback by the annual GDP growth rate of the cities that are predicted to top the charts. There are no longer any cities in the West; instead, all of the major cities are in the Asian region, which is dominated by China and India. Bangalore, which has experienced an enormous 8.5 per cent GDP growth, is in first place, followed by Dhaka, Mumbai, and Delhi. Bangalore’s startup culture and enormous talent pool set it apart from other cities. Bangalore itself is probably going to be the next Silicon Valley of Asia and the entire world. It now creates a huge number of startups. It has the potential to rank among the world’s most urbanised cities. These cities will outpace the global average annual #GDP growth rate, which is expected to be around 2.5%, by a sizeable margin.
Undoubtedly, nations will expand and cities will modernise to meet societal demands. Urban city growth has largely been attributed to rural-to-urban migration. However, the future will be better for us and our offspring if we can maintain a balance between the environment and sustainable growth. We are being impacted by climate change, which is real. In large areas, the effects of climate change will worsen the environment through prolonged heat waves, more erratic rainfall, drought, and flooding. As we can see in Pakistan, China, and Europe. Europe as a whole has experienced heat waves that have disrupted society, and China is currently dealing with extreme heat waves that are drying up the rivers and making it impossible to produce hydroelectricity. In Pakistan, there were an unusually high number of floods. Out of 160 districts, 110 are underwater, representing a loss of almost $10 billion. The rural agrarian and pastoralist communities of society, which heavily rely on the environment, are particularly impacted by these effects. Climate-driven migration is likely to rise as livelihoods all over the world are disrupted more and more by climate change. According to the World Bank Groundswell report, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia could experience massive internal migration of more than 130 million people if urgent national and international climate action is not taken immediately. 2018’s Rigaud et al. The broader prospects of regional environments are also impacted by urbanisation. Large increases in the amount of air pollution, precipitation, and the number of days with thunderstorms are also observed in areas that are downwind from large industrial complexes. Urban areas produce more precipitation, but they also have less water filtration, which lowers the water tables.
Respiratory infections and other infectious and parasitic diseases are among the health effects of environmental issues. When compared to people living in rural areas, capital costs for building improved environmental infrastructure are also more expensive. For instance, investments in a cleaner public transport system, like a tube, as well as for building more hospitals and clinics are more expensive in urban areas where wages are higher.
In the process of urbanisation, infrastructure does indeed play a significant role. India is currently working towards having an economy worth $5 trillion and is creating a massive infrastructure to support it. The veins of an economy are things like roads, bridges, and rail networks. Similar to how China built a vast network of infrastructures to support its economy India must prioritise certain industries for both inclusive and exclusive growth as the nation strives to become a manufacturing hub.
India must develop a more effective and quick network to support the movement of logistics. As India transitions from highways to motorways, it is often said that roads are the true reflection of the economy. This transition must be maintained so that infrastructure will soon be ready to advance rapidly. Therefore, ring-fencing of capital expenditure levels as a share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) becomes essential to enable macroeconomic stabilisation through the expansion of revenue expenditure.
Urban areas consume significantly more energy than rural villages do for heating, cooking, transportation, and electricity. For instance, today’s urban populations have more cars than rural ones. In the 1930s, the United States was home to nearly all of the cars produced worldwide. Today, that nation has a car for every two citizens. The top three nations in terms of greenhouse gas emissions are China, the United States, and India. If that were to become the norm, there would be close to 5.3 billion cars on the road worldwide in 2050, all of which would be generating emissions that would be destroying the environment.
Smart city initiatives, strategies, and applications may gradually spread and have both positive and negative effects. Emergency response times, typical commute times, and disease burden can all be improved by 10%–30%, while greenhouse gas emissions can be decreased by 10%–15% in cities (McKinsey Global Institute, 2018). Authorities can increase their effectiveness by valuing intelligent technologies. For example, they can use data collection applications to support their decision-making processes or enhance public procurement (Basukie et al., 2020; Bellini et al., 2022). (OECD, 2016). Additionally, citizens can have direct conversations with higher levels of trust in decision-makers (Desouza and Bhagwatwar, 2012). Smart infrastructure, which enables data collection on marginalised social groups like women, the elderly, and people with disabilities, as well as informal settlements and sectors, also has the potential to support social inclusion. Adopting public policies that specifically address the needs of these groups can be made easier with the help of the adoption of smart city applications, however, raises serious privacy, security, safety, and ethical concerns, including the following three problems: the risk of technological “lock-in,” as in some cases private companies may try to propose technologies that depend solely on their maintenance support, creating a monopoly-like control of smart technologies within the city (Clever et al., 2018; Kitchin, 2016); (ii) the risk of biassed inferences, as some applications, such as crime detection mechanisms, can generate inaccurate characterizations that create or reinforce social stigma and personal harm (Kitchin, 2016). Onufrey and Bergek, 2021); (ii) the corporatization of urban governance (the risk that the business model logic may be misinterpreted as a “profit-driven or cost-driven logic,” leading to citizens being treated unfairly as customers and adopting practises that undermine the government’s social and environmental goals; and (iii) the corporatization of business models (Onufrey and Bergek, 2021). (Timeus et al., 2020)
Of course, a wide range of factors, such as financial recessions, wars, food security, pandemics, political unrest, rapid urbanisation, and technological advancements, could have an impact on these projections for 2040. But one thing is certain: in the upcoming decades, cities will be the places where many of these factors will come together and take centre stage.
Blackcoffer Insights 47: Rajshree Kumari, St. Xavier's College
