Are you afraid that robots will take over the jobs of nurses, doctors, and other healthcare
professionals? Are you scared that artificial intelligence will control the world within a
couple of years?
COVID-19 has revealed how vulnerable the health care industry is to change and its need for structural and technological transformation. The COVID-19 pandemic has been an unwelcome reminder of just how much health matters not only to individuals and society but also to the global economy. Improved health accounted for about one-third of the overall GDP per capita growth of developed economies in the past century.
The traditional boundaries of the industry will dissolve and new roles will emerge in the future of health as exponential innovation propels the industry towards 2040. By 2040, health care as we know it today will no longer exist. There will be a fundamental shift from “health care” to “health.” And while disease will never be eliminated, through science, data, and technology, we can identify it earlier, intervene proactively, and better understand its progression to help consumers more effectively and actively sustain their well-being.
The future will be focused on wellness and managed by companies that assume new roles to drive value in the transformed health ecosystem. As the rate of technological evolution continues to speed up, companies need to look ahead and proactively plan for the future. For the healthcare industry, in particular, this need is even more pressing as it is compounded by the pace of declining health in our society. Ray Hammond commented on what healthcare will look like in 2040:
“Healthcare is one of the few arenas in which every one of us has a stake. The next 20 years will witness a profound change in healthcare, all the more notable given that medical science and healthcare delivery tend to be conservative, slow-moving sectors that are highly resistant to change. The annual global market is currently estimated to be worth around $8.1 trillion, with annual global spending on healthcare forecast to rise to $18.28 trillion by 2040.
With that in mind, we have a collective responsibility to ourselves and to the next generation to determine what that change will look like and the impact it will have on all of us.” How exactly does better health promote economic growth? First, fewer people are likely to die prematurely so the working-age population will increase. When people are healthier, absences from sickness decline and workers are less distracted by managing their
conditions or those of their loved ones. Also, fewer workers retire early because of health conditions.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit people with underlying health conditions hardest—for example, diabetes, hypertension, a chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, and obesity, which are common across most of the world’s economies. We can improve the health of the world’s population, and that would not only build resilience against future pandemics but also dramatically improve the quality of life of millions of people who suffer the heavy daily
the toll of chronic conditions.
Actions or programs such as adopting healthy behavior, expanding access to primary care, and improving medication adherence—could reduce the global disease burden by 40% over 20 years. We found that such a reduction of the disease burden would deliver tremendous benefits: a 65-year-old in 2040 could be as healthy as a 55-year-old today, infant mortality would decline by 65% and 230 million more people would be alive in 2040. More than 70% of the health benefits would come from prevention through healthier environments, healthier behavior, and preventive care (including safe childbirth, vaccination, and adherence to medications that lower risk) rather than treatment of diseases.
One way to improve health is to invest in communities so that children can grow up to live long and healthy lives as adults. The remaining 30% of the benefits we found would come from proven therapies to treat existing health conditions. “Future health care and wellbeing” report authored by internationally renowned futurologist, Ray Hammond presents the likely future developments and trends in healthcare between now and 2040.
Among the report’s key healthcare predictions for 2040 are:
• Health information from traditional annual physical check-ups and other tests previously only available in surgery or lab will be replaced by data from sensors on/around our ‘smart’ bodies (including in our clothing and, eventually, skin and blood). This will be immediately accessible to us, in real-time.
• A new field of ‘predictive medical data mining’ will provide early warnings of physiological trouble ahead or indications of disease as it develops. Physicians will have 24/7 real-time reports of their patients’ wellbeing and will be alerted to any change in patients’ data that requires urgent attention.
• Stem-cell medicine will be a powerful tool in mainstream medicine. For example, replacement human organs for transplant will be grown on demand from stem cells in the lab, with minimal risk of rejection
• Nano-medicine (in its infancy in 2019) may eventually outperform all other branches of medical science, as scientists create ‘designer drugs that are far more powerful than today’s drugs
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) ‘chatbots’ equipped with deep learning algorithms could relieve emergency room personnel of tending to large numbers of walk-in patients with non-emergencies (e.g. sore throats, UTIs).
The 10 archetypes will fall into three distinct, but interconnected, categories:
• Data and platforms: These archetypes will be the foundational infrastructure that forms the backbone of tomorrow’s health ecosystem. They will generate insights for decision-making. Everything else will build off of the data and platforms that underpin consumer-driven health.
• Well-being and care delivery: These archetypes will be the most health-focused of the three groupings made up of care facilities and health communities—both virtual and physical, and will provide consumer-centric delivery of products, care, wellness, and well-being.
• Care enablement: These archetypes will be connectors, financers, and regulators that
help make the industry’s “engine” run.
All three components need to be fully functioning and integrated for the future of health to come to life.
The future of healthcare is shaping up in front of our very eyes with advances in digital healthcare technologies, such as artificial intelligence, VR/AR, 3D printing, robotics, and nanotechnology.
We have to familiarize ourselves with the latest developments to be able to control technology and not the other way around. The future of healthcare lies in working hand-in-hand with technology and healthcare workers have to embrace emerging healthcare technologies to stay relevant in the coming years. So it is worth starting “the future” with the betterment of our health through digital technologies, as well as changing our attitude towards the concept of health as such and towards medicine and healthcare.
Blackcoffer Insights 43: MONALIKA BUGRA, VIVEKANANDA INSTITUTE OF PROFESSIONAL STUDIES
